Enrollment Projections - District (2016)

MONITORING ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTIONS

Arlington Public Schools monitors student enrollment and assesses the need for capacity in our schools on an ongoing basis. Several APS reports are produced annually to provide an estimate of student enrollment and insight into capacity needs for the future. The process of projecting student enrollment is fluid and dynamic, reflecting changes in County birth rates, housing development, migration, and other criteria that factor into the projections process. The enrollment and projection reports are used for planning purposes to ensure sufficient capacity, budget, staffing, and other resources to meet student needs.

APS produces reports throughout the year to monitor our evolving enrollment and capacity needs; the table below lists these reports and provides a timeline.

Planning Tools for Student Enrollment, Projection and Capacity

Report Name	Report Content	Primary Uses	Most Recent
Fall 2022 10-Year Enrollment Projections Report	Annual total school projections Reflects projected enrollment only Does not include information on existing or planned capacity	Used to prepare the Superintendent’s recommended budget for the upcoming school year, including staffing for schools	Fall 2022 10-Year Enrollment Projections Report (2023 to 2032) Narrated Presentation on the Context and Factors in the Fall 2021 Enrollment Projections (YouTube Video) FAQs
Enrollment Management Plan (formerly the Superintendent’s Annual Update)	The details in this report are framed around the following tools that APS uses to address near-term capacity changes: Adding relocatable classrooms Offering transfers to neighborhood schools that have space for additional students Increasing or decreasing the number of students or classes accepted via the lottery at each of the option schools/programs Moving programs Changing how classrooms are used (i.e., converting computer labs to classrooms)	Intended to be a one-stop resource that communicates what is in place currently to address enrollment growth, and the plans for continuous improvements to the process for addressing near-term capacity needs This report is published following any Fall boundary changes	Enrollment Management Plan 2023
Capacity Utilization Tables	Capacity utilization measures the extent that school buildings are occupied by comparing actual and projected PreK to Grade 12 student enrollment to the permanent seat capacity at each school. The purpose of the capacity utilization table is to show projected seat availability by school and by year for the next decade.	This data helps APS to assess capacity needs and the type of solution (capital or non‐capital) to accommodate students.	Capacity Utilization Tables, School Years 2023-24 to 2032-33
Arlington Facilities and Student Accommodation Plan (AFSAP)	Offers an overview of projected enrollment by school level Compares current and planned capacity with enrollment projections	Provides a comprehensive look at student enrollment and building capacity Used to inform the Capital Improvement Plan (CIP)	Arlington Facilities and Student Accommodation Plan An update to this report will be published June 2023
September Enrollment Report	Actual School Enrollment numbers on the last day of September each year	Serves as a snapshot of the number of students currently enrolled in each school Student record collection for reporting to the Virginia Dept. of Education	September Enrollment Reports
Spring 1-Year Projection Update	Uses January enrollment data to update projections for following year Reflects the lottery seat assignments, targeted transfers, neighborhood transfers, and PreK moves determined in the Enrollment Management Plan Does not include information on existing or planned capacity	Used for updating the budget for the next fiscal year Helps allocate staffing and resources for upcoming school year	Spring 1-Year Projections for the 2023-24 School Year
10-Year Capital Improvement Plan (CIP)	Addresses future facility needs, including new facilities, additions and renewals of existing schools	Used to plan for major and minor construction needs, and major repairs of facilities Serves as financial planning and project planning document for a 10-year period	10-Year Capital Improvement Plan

ANALYZING ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTIONS

Fall 2022 10-Year Enrollment Projections Report (2023 to 2032)

This report was published in December 2022. The Annual Enrollment Projections Report:

includes the Fall 2022 10-Year Projection Tables
explains data collection and related assumptions used to produce the projections, and provides the methodology which has been updated yearly since the Fall 2019 projections to incorporate assumptions provided by Arlington County government, including a forecast of births and residential development

A narrated presentation on the context and factors considered in last year’s enrollment projections is available at, Fall 2021 Enrollment Projections is available (YouTube Video).

Superintendent’s 2022 Annual Update

The Superintendent’s 2022 Annual Update:

focuses on addressing near-term capacity needs
provides a one-stop resource that communicates what is in place currently to address enrollment growth
plans for continuous improvements to the process for addressing near-term capacity needs

Arlington Facilities and Student Accommodation Plan (AFSAP)

This report was published in Fall 2019, the AFSAP:

offers an overview of projected enrollment by school level
compares current and planned capacity with enrollment projections
used to inform the Capital Improvement Plan (CIP)

September Enrollment Report

This report was most recently published in Fall 2020. Every month, APS produces an enrollment report that provides a snapshot of the official headcount of students on the last day of that month throughout the school year. The September Enrollment Report:

provides the official count of students enrolled in APS as of the last school day in September; and
is the main data source for enrollment projections.

Spring 1-Year Projections for the 2023-24 School Year

This report was most recently published Spring 2023, for the 2023-24 school year. The Spring 1-Year Projection Update:

uses the January 2023 enrollment report to update the projections for the next school year;
reflects the lottery seat assignments, targeted transfers, neighborhood transfers, and PreK moves determined in the Enrollment Management Plan
is used to prepare the budget for the next fiscal year; and
helps APS more accurately allocate staffing and other resources for the next fiscal year’s budget

MANAGING ENROLLMENT GROWTH AND PROJECTIONS

Several tools help APS meet the short- and long-term needs of enrollment growth. These include:

Short-term capacity adjustments (Relocatable classrooms)
Program Moves
Boundary Changes
Superintendent’s 2022 Annual Update
Capital Improvement Plan (updated every two years)

Note: Capital Improvement Projects that are under construction or are in the planning process to add seats at all school levels in the next decade are not reflected in the enrollment projections. Those reports reflect only enrollment and capacity use of existing facilities.

Archived Reports